Advanced Formula...

  • Thread starter Steven Sinclair
  • Start date
S

Steven Sinclair

Is there anyone out there who could assist with a probability formula?

Here is a quick sample...

I have numbers ranging from 1 to 100.
I have documented history of 800 "pick a number" from the above range.

For example, history looks like this:

1 picked 9 times, 2 picked 23 times, 3 picked 14 times, 4 picked 42 times...

How could I create a formula to determine the probability of numbers chosen
to be chosen again? Is it even possible?

Thanx.
 
D

Dave Peterson

If the number picked is fair (equal chance), then each should have a 1/100
chance of being picked.

If the numbers aren't fairly picked, then you could use the number of times
picked / 800 as an estimate:

probability of
1 = 9/800
2 = 23/800
3 = 14/800
4 = 42/800
....

If this is like a lotto pick, then the numbers drawn last week won't have any
affect on the number drawn this week--pingpong balls don't have a memory (in
fair and honest games!).
 
N

Neil

If the numbers are picked at random from 1 to 100 then the probability of a
particular number being picked is 0.01. No formula is needed as previous
results will not affect the next result. It is an independant event.
 
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