Demand forecasting

[jonjon]

Version: 2008 Operating System: Mac OS X 10.6 (Snow Leopard) Hi i am trying to apply the arch modell to forecast a trend in demand for a little model i would like to use for my bachelor thesis but i dont quite get it.
I do have the mean and i do have the standard variance but i am not quite sure how i can use that in excel... Is there any way to make excel do that?

My data comprises a timeline over 4 months with each day connected to a certain amount of used goods.

However there is no linear trend. The historic demand is quite volatile.

Any suggestion how to solve that issue are much appreciated!

Cheers

 

[Mike Middleton]

jonjon -

If the time series data has constant mean (no trend) and constant variance,
i.e., stationary, then (in the absence of other information) a point
forecast is the mean value. An approximate 95% prediction interval is
centered on that mean value plus and minus two standard deviations.

- Mike
http://www.MikeMiddleton.com
(e-mail address removed)



Version: 2008 Operating System: Mac OS X 10.6 (Snow Leopard) Hi i am trying
to apply the arch modell to forecast a trend in demand for a little model i
would like to use for my bachelor thesis but i dont quite get it.
I do have the mean and i do have the standard variance but i am not quite
sure how i can use that in excel... Is there any way to make excel do that?

My data comprises a timeline over 4 months with each day connected to a
certain amount of used goods.

However there is no linear trend. The historic demand is quite volatile.

Any suggestion how to solve that issue are much appreciated!

Cheers