Lottery Model

[KCG]

Hello everyone,

Please help. I want to build a model in Excel to help me determine possible
winning number combinations as my optimum solution, using previous draw
numbers as historical input data.

Is Excel's Solver suitable for this or would I have to look at a different
Optimization Engine. Where do I start?

Thanx

 

[Sandy Mann]

With all past Lottery results in rows 1:6

=COUNTIF(1:6,1)

will give you a count of the number of times the number 1 has been drawn
etc.

However, Lottery balls have no memory so being drawn before does not make
any particular ball more or less likely liable to be drawn in any particular
draw. Statistically as all balls have an equal chance of being drawn, given
enough draws, all balls will will be drawn an equal number of times. There
will be temporary skewing of the numbers but this is just by chance and will
have no predictable relevance to previous draws.

--
HTH

Sandy
In Perth, the ancient capital of Scotland
and the crowning place of kings

[email protected]
Replace @mailinator.com with @tiscali.co.uk

 

[Mike H]

Selection of the balls is similar to a coin flip in that the last result has
no bearing on the next. Because all balls have the same chance of being drawn
the best way to positively influence your chances at reasonable cost is to do
the same numbers every week and one day you will win. The wait however may be
a very long one.

If you want some numbers to crunch then here's the UK lottery history since
day 1.

http://www.savefile.com/files/948347

Mike

 

[JLatham]

As noted, lottery drawings are completely random. There are some factors
that go toward determining the balls that are drawn, but those are equally
random (where the balls are when the machine starts up, air density, relative
humidity, butterfly activity in the southern provinces of China, that kind of
thing).

But it is amusing to attempt to model it - our more to the point, out guess
it. For the Powerball lottery, you can get a database started from here:
http://www.powerball.com/pb_info.asp

You can approach it in several directions (which numbers have been chosen
the fewest times - on the theory that they *should* have better chance of
getting chosen in the future [they don't], or which numbers have been chosen
the most often - on the theory that they should continue to rise to the top
more often [they won't]).

I think the advice to pick one set of numbers and stick with it and wait for
the target to move into your sights is probably as good advice as any. It's
actually the methodology I use (yeah, I plop down my $2/wk and cross my
fingers - I'm still not able to call in to work and tell them "I'll not be in
for the rest of my life, got a bad case of the RICHes!" to deal with).

 

[bj]

actually if they would use the same balls for each drawing, there could be a
physical reason for a bias. Most of the major games use multiple sets of
balls to keep from having any effective bias. (I also play every week and
also just use one set of numbers. Statistically, my payout has been right
as expected [extremely low dollars but nice pay back in the "what if?"]))

As noted, lottery drawings are completely random. There are some factors
that go toward determining the balls that are drawn, but those are equally
random (where the balls are when the machine starts up, air density, relative
humidity, butterfly activity in the southern provinces of China, that kind of
thing).

But it is amusing to attempt to model it - our more to the point, out guess
it. For the Powerball lottery, you can get a database started from here:
http://www.powerball.com/pb_info.asp

You can approach it in several directions (which numbers have been chosen
the fewest times - on the theory that they *should* have better chance of
getting chosen in the future [they don't], or which numbers have been chosen
the most often - on the theory that they should continue to rise to the top
more often [they won't]).

I think the advice to pick one set of numbers and stick with it and wait for
the target to move into your sights is probably as good advice as any. It's
actually the methodology I use (yeah, I plop down my $2/wk and cross my
fingers - I'm still not able to call in to work and tell them "I'll not be in
for the rest of my life, got a bad case of the RICHes!" to deal with).

Hello everyone,

Please help. I want to build a model in Excel to help me determine possible
winning number combinations as my optimum solution, using previous draw
numbers as historical input data.

Is Excel's Solver suitable for this or would I have to look at a different
Optimization Engine. Where do I start?

Thanx

 

[Harlan Grove]

actually if they would use the same balls for each drawing, there could
be a physical reason for a bias. . . .

....

True, which is why most lottery authorities change balls after each drawing.
At that point you'd be arguing whether whatever's used to imprint numbers on
the balls would have similar effects in each set of balls, but that would
imply the should be a statistically significant difference in the relative
frequencies of single- and double-digit numbers. That'd be abount the only
meaningful statistical analysis one could perform with historical sets of
winning numbers.

Others have attempted 4 most common numbers analysis in the past. If the 4
most common balls appeared together every 100 draws or so, and if it balls
were numbered 1 to 49, then if that 1% frequency were reliable, it'd take on
average 100 draws to win with those 4 balls, and you'd have to bet every
other combination for the other two balls, so 990 combinations each draw. So
an outlay of $99,000. There are better ways of investing that much money.
Then again, a fool and his money . . .

 

[T. Valko]

There are newsgroups dedicated to this subject.

The most popular scheme is to play for the "daily number". Most state
lotteries have a daily 3 digit number. The method is to pick a *group* of
numbers that covers the most possible combinations that can come up and then
cross your fingers. If you are to believe some of the people that post to
these lottery groups they are fairly successful. They're not winning big
money but they're winning little money somewhat often. For example, you're
betting $10 to win $50.

 

[eddie57]

Hello everyone,

Please help. I want to build a model in Excel to help me determine
possible
winning number combinations as my optimum solution, using previous draw

numbers as historical input data.

Is Excel's Solver suitable for this or would I have to look at a
different
Optimization Engine. Where do I start?

Thanx

Send me a copy when you've completed it. GL

Ed