Predicting rainfall

G

gavin100

I have the last 15 years of rainfall statistics and wanted to predict
the next 10 years.

Can anyone suggest a suitable function. Previously I have used 5 year
average but maybe this is too simplistic.
 
A

Alex Delamain

Really you need to look at the data before choosing a method fo
forecasting - ie is it linear, cyclical or what.

Plot 10 years of data then apply a trend line to the chart. Exce
allows you to extend the trendline under options. Set this to forecas
5 periods and compare the results with the last 5 years data for th
best fit.

You can then plot the full 15 years and again extend the forecast t
cover the next 10 years
 
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