How does one forecast completion date based on current progress?

[Uncle Wern]

Is there a way that MS Project can forecast a new completion(finish) date,
based on the % complete progress update? In other words if the % complete
makes the project with a "LATE" status, the forecast completion(finish) date
will move out, and vice versa. If so, please explain the process to me.

 

[salgud]

Is there a way that MS Project can forecast a new completion(finish) date,
based on the % complete progress update? In other words if the % complete
makes the project with a "LATE" status, the forecast completion(finish) date
will move out, and vice versa. If so, please explain the process to me.

You probably want to avoid using %Complete as an input device for tracking
your projects. It is easily fudged and the default %Complete is actually
duration %Complete, which is somewhere between not very useful and useless.
So if you enter 50% complete, all you're telling the software that half of
the time it takes to finish that task is gone. It has no relationship with
how much of the actual work is done, or how much remains to be done.

The best way to track is to use either the Tracking Form or the Tracking
table. Get each resource to give you their tally on how many hours they've
worked on each assigned task, and their best estimate of how many more
hours it will take them to complete each task. Enter the Acutal Hours and
Remaining hours in the table or the form. Project will then calculate the
updated schedule automatically.

If you want to know how this new schedule compares with the original, you
have to baseline the projecf before you start tracking. Google this NG for
more details on baselining.

Hope this helps in your world.

 

[davegb]

You probably want to avoid using %Complete as an input device for tracking
your projects. It is easily fudged and the default %Complete is actually
duration %Complete, which is somewhere between not very useful and useless.
So if you enter 50% complete, all you're telling the software that half of
the time it takes to finish that task is gone. It has no relationship with
how much of the actual work is done, or how much remains to be done.

The best way to track is to use either the Tracking Form or the Tracking
table. Get each resource to give you their tally on how many hours they've
worked on each assigned task, and their best estimate of how many more
hours it will take them to complete each task. Enter the Acutal Hours and
Remaining hours in the table or the form. Project will then calculate the
updated schedule automatically.

If you want to know how this new schedule compares with the original, you
have to baseline the projecf before you start tracking. Google this NG for
more details on baselining.

Hope this helps in your world.

Sorry, this answer got posted to the wrong thread.

 

[Steve House]

This is one of the functions of Earned Value, specifically its 'S-Curve'
plots. By extrapolating the BCWP curve until it reaches the Budget At
Completion line one can determine a revised Estimated Completion Date.
Since the baseline budget represents the estimated total man-hours of work
required to complete the deliverable, the date that amount of work has been
performed will be the date the project is done. Then by extrapolating the
ACWP curve until it reaches that calculated Estimated Completion Date, one
can determine a revised Estimated Cost At Completion. Exporting Earned
Value data to Excel and using its trend analysis tools can give you all
sorts of valuable info.