Forecast % Complete

[AM]

Hey;

We are traking progress against % completes. So we decided to add a
column which would have Forecast % complete to the plan. This would
show us the deltas each week as to what was forecasted and where they
actually are (% complete).
But I realized there is no Forecast% complete in MS Project. Would
anyone help me how I could do this. Is there a way? Please advice.


Thanks
AM

 

[John]

Hey;

We are traking progress against % completes. So we decided to add a
column which would have Forecast % complete to the plan. This would
show us the deltas each week as to what was forecasted and where they
actually are (% complete).
But I realized there is no Forecast% complete in MS Project. Would
anyone help me how I could do this. Is there a way? Please advice.


Thanks
AM

AM,
Why the duplicate post? We got it the first time.

With regard to a forecast, actually this concept is part of classical
earned value (EV) metrics. In particular the metric called, Budgeted
Cost of the Work Scheduled (BCWS) attempts to "predict" how much value
should be earned by a particular time. And since classical earned value
is measured using % Complete, (although Project 2003 did add the option
to use Physical % Complete for measuring EV progress), it should be
pretty close to what you want. The thing I personally don't like about
classical earned value is that everything is expressed in terms of
money. For cost that makes perfect sense but for schedule I do not agree
that time is money in all cases.

Nonetheless I suggest you read more about EV in the Project help file.
If after studying EV concepts, you decide it just does not provide what
you want, then a formula in a custom field (or VBA) can certainly be
used to produce a forecast % complete value.

Hope this helps.
John
Project MVP

 

[AM]

John,

Thanks for your prompt response, I think I am looking for both the % to
be based off of duration.We are not getting any financials involved. So
the alternative that you suggest about using cusom field(VBA)...how do
I do that? I am still new to MS Project and I am not aware where and
how I could do that. Your advice will be highly appreciated.
Thanks
Amit

 

[AM]

John,

Thanks for your prompt response, I think I am looking for both the % to
be based off of duration.We are not getting any financials involved. So
the alternative that you suggest about using cusom field(VBA)...how do
I do that? I am still new to MS Project and I am not aware where and
how I could do that. Your advice will be highly appreciated.
Thanks
Amit

 

[Jim Aksel]

I strongly suggest avoiding use of %complete, use %work complete instead.
%Complete does nothing more than mark a % of complete against time, not work.
If you have 100 hours of work to do, you want to know what % of the work is
complete, not the %of the time spent. Physical %Complete (new to Project
2003) adds an entirely new dimension. Fortunately, the help system is great
and explains all this very well so I will not repeat is all here. Ah, the
earned value of it all...

 

[John Sitka]

Give AM an example.
Last fall I began building a deck, It was fun. The weekend I planned to seal it we had an ice storm.
The work was 95% done after a couple weekends (30 hours) worth of work last fall, 4 months later there was still snow.
So around New Years I was only 33% complete. So what is % complete and what isn't?
With work as your measure then at least there is a chance of knowing.

 

[AM]

Ok, makes sense, but I still haven;t got my answer as to how do I
forecast % complete each week, what was the % work that was supposed to
happen ideally vs what actually happened due to any reason (ice storm
or snow storm or Tsunami ). What field should I ideally use to add
another column for Forecast% complete?

-AM

 

[Jim Aksel]

The answer is posted, as best Project can do it. The field BCWS (Budgeted
Cost of Work Scheduled) displays the cummulative value of the $$ amount of
work that is scheduled to be performed up to the status date. Here is the
procedure:

1. Establish a baseline making sure each resource has a cost associtated
with it. If you do not have a cost, use $1.0 on the resource sheet.

2. Save the baseline (Tools/Tracking/Save Baseline...)

3. Establish a project status date: (Project/Project Information...) Type
in a date.

4. Insert the BCWS column

The dollar value of the work that should have been performed up to the
status date will be displayed. If you want that value in hours you have to
do one of two things. (1) Estable resources with $1.hr costs or (2) Divide
the dollars by the hourly rate. The joy comes when there are multiple
resources at different rates assigned to the task.

Some other fields to consider: Remaining Work, Remaining Cost.
You can get the value of work for a specific period of time using the Date
Range filter. Converting this over to percentage may involve a custom
calculation field.
I've been doing this for a long time and no one has ever said "You have 17%
of your work schedule to complete between day 1 and day 2" Instead they
always say, "I see you have xxx hours scheduled between ...." or "X Dollars
of work scheduled between ...."

Remember, the %Work scheduled will depend on the resource loading. I see no
formula in Project that does it for you. Consider a custom field with
"BCWS/BAC" or "BCWS/Baseline Cost" which will give you cummulative
%Scheduled. To do it between two specific dates, on an automatic basis, is
more involved.

One way to do it would be to calculate %scheduled as of Status Date1 and
then change the status date to Status Date2 and take the numerial difference
with a hand held calculator.

Hope that helps

 

[John]

Ok, makes sense, but I still haven;t got my answer as to how do I
forecast % complete each week, what was the % work that was supposed to
happen ideally vs what actually happened due to any reason (ice storm
or snow storm or Tsunami ). What field should I ideally use to add
another column for Forecast% complete?

AM,
Did Jim's latest response provide a satisfactory approach? If not let us
know.

John
Project MVP

 

[Catfish Hunter]

Once you set a baseline go to View Resource Useage. Click on Analyze
Timescale Data in Excel. You want to bring out Work (man-hours). This will
export the time phased forecast man-hours. Now you can set up formulas to do
a total forecast.
For actuals I agree with what was stated about the 3 types of percen
complete. Be careful here. MS Projets will add man-ours and duration to task
and this lowers your progress. I use Physical % complete because it does not
affect the task duration, man-hours or end date. Each day or week I export
the prohect to Excel with Physical % and work. I then add a formula to
calculate progress agains the baseline. Hope this helps.

 

[AM]

I would use the physical % complete as Forecasted % complete, since it
does not impact anything and then use the deltas between %comlete and
forecast% to show my status (Red,Green, Yellow). What do you think?
Will that work? If not what implications do you predict?

-AM

 

[Catfish Hunter]

AM did you read my first post?

I would use the physical % complete as Forecasted % complete, since it
does not impact anything and then use the deltas between %comlete and
forecast% to show my status (Red,Green, Yellow). What do you think?
Will that work? If not what implications do you predict?

-AM